That’s a Wrap

I think I am obligated to at least mention that THE YANKEES WON THE WORLD SERIES tonight.

Hopefully my fellow Yankee fans will not be unbearably smug about everything, because the Phillies definitely played a good series. It was an A-rod 9th inning hit away from a 7 game series, and anything could have happened in a game 7.

I’ll save more for when I have more time to do a proper write up, but the playoffs were a thrill to watch (A-rod turning into a crunch-time superstar, some great come back wins) and the World Series was great. Matsui is absolutely the MVP, even as a DH in a series with 3 games in an NL park where he still managed to do damage as a pinch hitter.

Congratulations to the Yankees and my fellow fans. It seems strange that when they won the last of their string of championships I was 14. Here’s hoping to the beginning of a new run!

Swisher and Abreu Matched Up

(This was a discussion on Something Awful’s Sports Argument Stadium, which I decided to string out and further here)

By the end of the 2008 season it seemed like it was becoming obvious that Bobby Abreu wasn’t going to be back. He was 34 (now 35), with a walk rate that had declined each of the previous two seasons and a continuous and worsening absurd fear of the outfield wall. Offering him arbitration would have likely meant skipping the signing of one of the big three acquisitions last off-season, and would have handed Abreu a hefty salary that he probably didn’t deserve.

Now, that last statement was not meant to be a knock on Abreu. He’s been a remarkably consistent player, in spite of his gradual downgrade with age. But a minimum salary of near $13 million (arbitration would have resulted in a contract of no less than 80% of Abreu’s $16 mm salary) seemed like an obvious pass in the economic climate of last year. Being that Abreu only signed for $5 mm (with another million headed his way in bonuses) should tell you whether the Yankees made the right business move.

In his place the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher (though it didn’t turn out Swisher would be the regular right field until after the signing of Mark Teixeira and the injury to Xavier Nady) for minor league pitcher Jeff Marquez, infielder Wilson Betemit, and the key pieces of the trade, magic beans and sexual favors. Those last bits I have assumed, because why else would a team dump a young outfielder/first baseman who OPS’d  .836 and .864 the two seasons prior to a BABIP ravaged 2008? A guy who also plays average or better defense at three positions, all while making a reasonable salary? All for a minor league pitcher yet to show any improvement on several mediocre minor league seasons and an infielder who can neither hit nor field.

Well as it turns out both Swisher and Abreu bounced back from (while not terrible) below standard seasons to have excellent 2009’s. The question I am pondering is whether or not the Yankees made the right decision in letting Abreu walk and replacing him with Swish.

I’ll assume Abreu would have gotten the minimum allowed salary via arbitration of $12.8 million for 2009 (while he only signed with LAA for $5 mm, if he were to remain a Yankee it would have been through arbitration). He in all likelihood would have made more than that, I can’t think of any instance where someone was awarded the bare minimum in an arbitration hearing, and Abreu didn’t exactly have a bad year. Swisher on the other hand made $5.3 mm for 2009 (and is signed for 2 more years plus an option year for a three year total of $26 mm). That’s a savings of $7.5 million, almost equal to the salary given to Andy Pettitte for this season. Also, by no means am I insinuating that the Yankees wouldn’t have been able to afford Pettitte if they kept Abreu, but even they don’t have an infinite bankroll. Someone else from the 2009 roster wouldn’t have been here (probably Burnett).

Abreu has been for the bulk of his career a vastly superior player to anything Swisher has ever been, but in 2009 they were near equals. In fact, Swisher probably has an edge due to his defensive advantages. Swisher was near neutral in the outfield with a total UZR of -1.9, while Abreu’s was a -4.6.

A quick offensive side by side:

                Swisher          Abreu

BA              .249                 .293

OBP            .371                 .390

SLG            .498                 .435

wOBA        .375                 .367

The biggest difference was that Swisher belted almost double the homers (29:15). Abreu’s on base advantage (due to his vastly higher batting average) creates a near wash of the two in terms of offensive output. All in all, you can’t go wrong with either player. But Swisher, for a savings of $7.5 mm, with a contract that runs potentially until 2012, and for a player who is not yet 29 years old (more than six years younger than Abreu) appears to be a better deal both this year and in the next several seasons.

The Yankees could be facing the same situation this off-season with Johnny Damon’s contract expiring. Hopefully the left field spot transitions as smoothly and successfully as the right field position did. There’s a host of possibilities for this but I’ll save those for an off-season article. There are more important things to look forward to this week! The whole point of this discussion, of course, is that Swisher and his counterpart are meeting in the playoffs starting Friday night. My gut/instincts/women’s intuition tell’s me Yankees in six. Hopefully Chone Figgins doesn’t make us his plaything like usual and the Yankees can take it in four.

Oh and just for fun, here is perhaps the best picture of A-Rod ever taken:

Just waiting for that roofie to kick in.

Playoff Preview: ALDS

The Twins and the Tigers each won today, which means the winner AL Central will come from a tie breaking 163rd game to be held on Tuesday (at the incredibly awkward time of 5:07 Eastern/4:07 local time; that is a gripe for another day). I’d been planning on doing a quick preview on here because they are fun to do and I enjoy reviewing head to head match-ups. Instead I waited the entire weekend only to see the Tigers flounder in their series against the White Sox. Luckily for you I have, as usual, concocted a scheme to make all well again: a three team head to head to head comparison!

It seems to be common perception that pitching and defense are what wins in the playoffs. That may or may not be true, but either way you have to score to win. You can hypothetically win a game in which you allow twenty-three runs; you can’t win one scoring zero. So let’s begin with offense:

The Yankees led the majors in runs scored, by a pretty fair margin, with 905.  The Twins were seventh in all of baseball, something that surprises me each time I look at it. I think I am still used to the buntbuntbuntscrap days of the Twins, but they’re a fairly dangerous offensive team (in spite of a few of the dreadful regulars in their lineup). At the other end were the Tigers, who were fourth worst in the AL in runs scored (17th ranked in all of baseball). With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at what made up each of their offenses.

The Yankees set a team record for homeruns this season (with 242), as well as homeruns at home (129). There is good power in almost every slot of the lineup, as well as on the bench. A lot was made of the absurd homerun rates at New Yankee Stadium, but that seems to have cooled lately. There were only 16 more homeruns hit at home then on the road this year. Whether the “wind tunnel” will turn out to be an annual Spring/early Summer surge, or if it was simply an aberrational stretch, it seems a lot more evident that the homerun records for this team were the result of the lineup more than anything.

The Yankees, like in runs, pretty handily led the league in homers. In spite of their low run totals, the Tigers actually finished tenth in baseball in homers (in a rather large park) with 178, six ahead of the 13th ranked Twins. The Yankees also (surprise) led baseball in slugging and isolated power (ISO). The Twins were ninth and 15th, the Tigers 16th and 12th in those respective categories.

As far as getting on base, the Tigers (.330 OBP) were way behind both the Yankees (.362) and Twins (.344). The Tigers also finish a distant third to the Twins and Yankees in batting average and total walks. It’s pretty clear why they’re offense sputters, in spite of the decent homerun totals.

The pitching matchup is not quite as lopsided. In ERA, the Yankees come in 12th in baseball (but 4th in the AL) with a 4.30 line. The Tigers are just about on the level with them, 6th in the AL with an ERA of 4.35. The Twins (once again, this was a surprise all season) had a 4.51 ERA and actually had the best bullpen ERA of the three teams, which further shows just how iffy their rotation can be. I guess it shouldn’t be as unexpected to me as it is, they don’t exactly have a Johan Santana in their rotation anymore.

(By the way, in their most important game of the year, the Twins started Carl Pavano on 3 days rest. They’ve come a long way.)

For a more nuetral look at the pitchers performances, let’s check out their FIP. The Yankees were right in line with their ERA with a 4.31 FIP. The Tigers were at 4.53, and the Twins 4.38.  That highlights the defensive differences in the two teams, with Tigers pitchers receiving more help (thanks, Adam Everett!) than those for the Twins (thanks, Delmon Young!).

Speaking of defensive help, the Tigers pretty much have three things going for them if they make the playoffs: at least two games from Justin Verlander each series; Miguel Cabrera; and their defense. They were third in baseball with a 50.5 team UZR, tremendously ahead of the Twins and Yankees, who were at -36.3 and -16.2, respectively. I think the Yankees play a little better than that number, but they’re still definitely behind Detroit. Robinson Cano, for example, played better than his -5 UZR this year (so I think, anyway… defensive evaluations get much better next season when batted ball and player data begin to be tracked and examined in the same fashion as pitch fx).

As their records would indicate, the Tigers and Twins are fairly well matched and the Yankees are far ahead of either of them in overall talent. The Twins are going to have home field advantage for the play-in game, and in a game where the pitching matchup is fairly even (Scott Baker for the Twins against Rick Porcello of the Tigers) you have to go with the team that was better offensively all season long.

tl;dr: Yankees will win in 3 or 4 games, regardless of this rounds opponent.

I promise to be less smug if/when the Yankees make the ALCS; like any sane Yankee fan, I respect the Red Sox and am deathly afraid of the Angels, who turn the Yankees into a little league team every season.

Hopefully the network friendly broadcast schedules don’t run the games or prevent anyone from seeing their hometown team (though I’m sure this will happen). Every series should be fun. Nothing beats playoff baseball!

Yankees Clinch Division and Home-Field Advantage

Hopefuly we'll be seeing this a few more times.

After missing out on the postseason for the first time since baseball went on strike, the Yankees started anew by clinching the AL East and homefield advantage in the playoffs. On top of that, thanks to the arbitrary all star game rule (AL won, receives home field in the world series), the Yankees have home field for the entire playoffs.

It’s been a foregone conclusion that they’d make the playoffs this season, but it is still an exciting day to be a Yankee fan, if only for the glorious hive of sexually awkward photos that come from the clubhouse.

I also heard some rumblings in the past week about players celebrating clinching playoff berths. Apparently they didn’t have celebrations “back in the day.” On top of this being not true (players were just as big dicks 40 or 50 years ago as they were today), it’s also terrible logic. Or maybe I’m one of those sassy gen-Xers who doesn’t respect his elders and listens to music too loud. Perhaps we should go back to the days when racism was more prevalent, polio was a legitimate concern, TV was in black and white, and leadoff hitters ran the bases with all the discretion of Kanye West on crank.

That’s a pretty stupid thing to even argue about though since anyone who shares that idea is old, fat, or retarded.

Coming tomorrow: Playoff previews! Enjoy these select photos of Yankees in awkward and semi-disturbing poses.

Not pictured: CC's bitches.

No, I don't know who that dude on the right is either.

You won't see Mariano smile this big again until Jesus returns.

Like a Cheetah With a Rocket Launcher on It’s Back

I’m not the only one who thinks the best part about Mike Vick being back on the field is he is playable in Madden again, right?

If I were a prosecuting attorney, judge, or Roger Goodell I am pretty sure this would factor into my decision.

“Those dogs he killed were innocent and helpless.”

“Yeah. But he’s got like 90 speed in Madden.”

“He electrocuted them. He’s a murderer.”

“93 throwing power.”

“Fine. One month.”

He certainly did his time and perhaps it’s just me being naive but he actually does seem sorry. Either way, it would be amusing if the terms of his reinstatement were that whenever his team lost a game or he throws an interception he got waterboarded and electro-shocked.

And whenever Dante Stallworth drops a pass he gets hit by a car.

Disco Hayes Doesn’t Advertise

I’m apparently on a kick of linking minor league blogs that have been passed on to me this week, but here is another: Disco Hayes, submarining right handed reliever for the Royals AAA affiliate. This is probably the most entertaining and fun blog I’ve ever seen from a ballplayer, and if the Royals ever wise up and give him a major league chance I will buy one of his jerseys.

Artist's conception of the origins of Disco.

Although the way things are run in KC we may have to wait it out, as Disco seems to be getting the Chad Bradford treatment. No one trusts a guy who can’t crack 90 mph on his fastball, regardless of the results. Plus this is the same team who are keeping Kila Kaaihue banished in AAA while they run out Mike Jacobs to patrol first base with an OBP around .300. Oh and as a reward for the brilliant trade to bring in Jacobs, as well as the terrific signings of Kyle Farnsworth (2 years, $9.25 million, 5.40 ERA) and Jose Guillen (in year 2 of a 3 year, $36 million contract; .688 OPS), Royals GM Dayton Moore is about to receive an extension through 2014. Royals Baseball, catch the fever*!

*May be lethal.

Exceliraptors

Tonight I have a sort of dual purpose project. My first reason for getting into it is that I am trying to learn Excel basics. The second is that I was curious at to how well runs scored by MLB teams correlated with runs created. Runs created is a sort of simple catch all offensive term. It includes power numbers, on base skills, and speed as well. Caught stealing takes away from the on base portion, because obviously you have wiped away the appearance on base. Stolen bases contribute to the base advancing half, which also includes total bases to encompass doubles, triples and homers. That wiki link explains it better than I do in any case, and while it is far less advanced than wOBA and other new metrics it is still a surprisingly accurate formula for the expected runs an offense will output.

Also note that there are several versions of runs created. I am using a semi-basic one that still includes SB and CS:

Now if anyone would like to check out the excel workbook it can be seen here. On to the nerdery!

The first describes the total number of runs scored (blue) against runs created by the team (red). The teams are ordered from least prolific offense to most, with the league and MLB averages at the top. Click for a more readable size.

It’s impressive how accurate these formulas are. The team outperforming their expected runs the most are the A’s. The Yankees are actually underperforming. They should realistically have even more runs than they currently have scored. I’m not about to go into any deeper calculations today to figure out the exact cause, but reasons for a difference in actual runs and runs created can be double plays hit into, running into outs on the bases, or simple failure in clutch situations. That last one is a possibility for the Yankees, as they hit 12 points lower with runners in scoring position than they do overall.

The second graph levels out team totals, since every team has not played the same number of games. It compares runs per game (red) with runs created per game (blue).

Same idea as the last graph, just slightly more accurate. In all likelihood the two values will get closer to each other as the season goes on. The larger the sample size the lower the probability of an outlier (such as the Yankees bad luck, which is astounding to see being that they are second in MLB in runs per game).

I have a few other projects of varying depth I’ll be messing around with, but I shall try and keep everything on here updated with new info. Stay tuned!

Brains and Brawn

At 6'8" he's as tall as he looks.

Phillies prospect Michael Schwimer posted an awesome article detailing the thought process he puts into pitching. He links video of his two-inning save and goes through a pitch by pitch analysis of how he tries to get batters out, telling you what worked and didn’t work both physically and mentally.

He’s currently in A+ Clearwater and has 83 strikeouts against 19 walks with an ERA of 2.90 in 59 innings. He obviously puts a lot of effort into his work (both his pitching and his write up), so good luck to him!

The Conundrum of A.J. Burnett

The only appropriate caption for this legendary photo is "Fuck Yeah!"

I could probably write this post about half of the Yankees pitching staff, and the same thing has probably been written by one thousand Blue Jays bloggers (and the one Marlins blogger), but is anyone more mind boggling than A.J. Burnett? There are few guys who can match the repertoire he boasts: a mid-to-high nineties fastball and a truly great curveball. It isn’t obscene to compare him to Nolan Ryan in regards to the stuff he has, and the strikeout and walk numbers are both fairly comparable. Of course, while Ryan pitched for approximately half of the twentieth century with remarkable durability Burnett has found himself on the DL several times over his career, including Tommy John surgery back in his Florida days.

The injuries are not the frustrating aspect of Burnett’s career, however. I should be fair to him, he pitched over 200 innings last season for the first time in his career and is likely to do the same this year, so it would seem those issues are behind him. No, the pattern that has emerged to Yankee fans watching him regularly for the first time, and to anyone who watched him regularly in the past is present in his game log.

Now the most troubling part isn’t so much that every few weeks he’ll have a meltdown of a game (though that is still troubling). Rather, look at his walk numbers and you’ll see just why he can be incredibly dominant one night and brutal the next. Every few games A.J. will lose all sight of the strike zone, and just on his natural skill he can make an okay start out of a lot of these games. Of course, if you play a patient team like Boston and you have no control they’ll simply wait you out and take all the walks they can get (like what happened last week) and your team gets thoroughly abused.

Just because I think it looks hilarious, here is Burnett’s strike zone scatter plot from the game in April I linked earlier in which he walked seven batters (Curtesy of Brooks Baseball as always):

It’s hard to get mad at the guy who I like watching more than any other pitcher the Yankees have (when he’s on, anyway), and I am really nit picking complaints here. But if Burnett pitched the way he is capable every start he could get Cy Young Winner tattooed along side his variety of other pieces.

I think I just wanted to post that bad ass Nolan Ryan picture and he seemed like a logical comp with Burnett. And if Burnett ever drills someone in the back (he’s fifth in the league in hbp’s with 9 by the way, behind #1 Carlos Marmol who has 11 in only 59 innings!), watches them charge at him, puts them in a headlock and beats the hell out of them he will be my favorite Yankee ever.

Yes, even cooler than Mickey.

David Robertson and Jonathan Papelbon Are Not As Different As You Think

Jonathan Papelbon is in the midst of his fourth full season in the majors, and has made the All-Star team in each of those years. He is generally regarded as being one of the top closers in baseball, boasts intimidating velocity, and seems like he’s a pretty big douche. Now before I get any further, I agree with the consensus that he is a fine reliever (though I still think it’s dumb that the Red Sox didn’t give him more of a chance to start instead of shoe horning him into the closers role, minimizing his potential right off the bat). He has a great strikeout rate (10 per 9 inings) and a good opponent’s batting average (.231 this year, which is actually a career worst).

You earned it Pap, you save the game about as often as Eddie Guardado.

But, whether it is because he is plays the most over hyped role in sports or because he is over the top on the mound and plays for the Red Sox, Papelbon has evolved into a very over-valued player.

Papelbon has a career number of 141 saves, against 18 blown saves. That comes to 88.6% of the time that he saves the game, which is only slightly ahead of Eddie Guardado’s career rate, and pretty near Matt Capps (sicne he has been closing). Now, the point here isn’t to put Paps down, it’s to compare him to a guy on the Yankees who’s getting his first extended look in the majors, David Robertson.
Let’s compare a few key numbers between the two this season:

Robertson Papelbon

D-Rob: Just as valuable as Papelbon?

ERA+        142                    216

FIP            2.98                  3.47

WHIP        1.34                   1.24

k/9            13.11 (!!!)         9.95

k/bb          2.63                  2.80

hr/9          .79                    .89

babip        .339                  .304

A lot more similar than I expected. The two of them seem to pitch with the same ulcer inducing style of putting men on base more often than they should via walk before finishing innings with strikeouts or weak contact. Oddly enough Robertson has an OAV of .218 even with the high babip. I think both are great relievers, and of course Papelbon has been at this a lot longer than Robertson. It’s still amusing to see how closely they compare this season (and there’s no reason to think Robertson can not continue to succeed after the way he’s pitched his minor league career). Papelbon will be making $6.3 million this season (and will be getting a raise before next year in arbitration), while Robertson is pitching on a league minimum deal. Papelbon will also continue to get the bulk of the fan fare (nationally, anyway), while Robertson quietly pitches in increasingly important games for the Yankees (setting up for the best relief pitcher in history of course).

If I were Theo Epstein I would be cashing in on the inflated value Papelbon has, there are a lot of teams that would pay a pretty penny for a closer with as big a name as he has. He might be a fan favorite at the moment but it isn’t like the Sox can’t alter that at their will (Nomar and Manny were two of the most popular Red Sox ever, and they got the the boot as the team saw fit).

Stay tuned for some in depth coverage from the Yankees/Athletics game tomorrow. I will be in attendance and I will try and steal an interview with the man I just wrote about.